Dollar in up move!

The Dollar is in a good up move and has touched 50.19 on 10th November 2011, however it has seemed to hit a Upward channel are resistance and at the same time, it has formed a negative divergence with the RSI , indicating that a fall is iminent in the dollar.

However the fall will not be a sharp one, it should find support at its upward channel line at 48.90-49.00

The dollar is in a good up move and is forming a Flag formation and a break from the upward resistance of 50.40 could take the dollar to 51.5 to 52 levels.

However for the time being the advise would be to go short on Dollar for a very short term perspective with a target of 49.50-49.30

Sell Like there is no tommorow!

Nifty Has given a break down sign on Wednesday (09-11-2011). The Day saw nifty making a Gap up opening however by the day end all the bullishness in the market has been swayed away and the Nifty closed near its Day low.The Nifty has made a shooting star pattern on the Daily charts, which is a Trend reversal pattern.

I must be guilty of updating my posts a little late, (as i want my investors to be safe rather than face the market volatility) still the Nifty looks very weak and one can still make huge profits by going short on Nifty at current levels and the Target certainly looks good for 4720 support that the nifty has been testing time and again for some time now.

On the Weekly charts the Nifty has been moving in a down channel and had a strong resistance at 5400 levels which still holds good, and the Nifty has given a reversal from that very range.

As mentioned in my earlier post, the Signal has now emerged as nifty has managed to fill the Gap it has created on 28-10-2011 and it has closed near the opening of the Gap on Friday.
The Nifty now will try to find support at 5000 levels however nifty looks good for the Target of 4700.

So happy Selling and Trail your Targets to maximise profits.  

Don't go Short just now! wait for signs...

Nifty today has made an interesting pattern today on the Daily charts...which is known as Island reversal. If you see Nifty has made a gap up opening of exactly the same amount as it had made an earlier gap down opening few months back, precisely on 5th August, and this time the Gap up breakout has been with Huge volumes. The Nifty now should possibly find a resistance at 5420 levels and then at 5500 levels.

However this would be to early to make a call for a Bullish Nifty, if the Nifty is able to sustain above the 5400 levels and the Gap with which it has made a Opening today (28/10/2011) doesn't get filled within 2-3 days all the bearishness in the market could be seen going away.

It would be advisable for the Investor's to wait for the 5420 levels, if the Nifty is able to take out this level with volumes and sustains above it one can go long on Nifty, but for the time being the advise would be don't go short now, WAIT FOR THE REVERSAL.

I would be Updating on My blog as soon as the Reversal happens but till then DON'T GO SHORT.

L&T it's time to Fall now.........

LT has been finding support for Long at around 1500 levels, but the coming week it broke it support with increased volumes and and managed to close at 1451, making a Head & Shoulder pattern.

Therefore the Stock should fall to 1175 levels within 9 weeks time i.e approximately by 21st November.

If you Notice that the stock had made a Gap up opening some time back during 18-05-2009, now i believe the stock might fall futher and find support at this Gap level of 989 odd levels.

However the primary Target still remains 1175 and further call would be once this Target is achieved.

Is it time to Buy......No Not at all....

The Nifty has made a Head & Shoulder pattern on the Weekly chart and the break down, as can be seen from the intersection of the left shoulder & neckline has been severe and upto 4720, but the Nifty has made a U turn from there and now the Nifty is moving Northwards and people are talking of Nifty reaching again to 5500-5600 levels.

As mentioned in the earlier post, as 4770 is a 50% retracement level for the Nifty for it's rise from 2500 odd levels to 6350 levels, however that had been broken on a closing basis and Nifty closed at 4747, so the sanctity of the 4770 levels has been breached now, also the Head & Shoulder pattern on the Nifty charts shows that the target for Nifty is 4200 and the time target would be till Dec last week.

The Nifty right now will face resistance at multiple levels first at 5110 (38.2%) and then at 5232 (50%), now incidentally 5232 is the level where nifty has made a Gap down opening as well, so this 5232 level will act as a strong resistance.

Therefore one should right now wait for the Nifty to test the 5232 levels and if the Nifty is able to sustain above this level then one can go Buy, however the chances are more that Nifty will face resistance at these levels.

In Nutshell....the advise would be wait for 5232 levels and if Nifty faces resistance here go short on Nifty with a minimum target of 4300 till December. 

Target Achieved.....Nifty Touches 4800 level on 19th August 2011

The target given for the Nifty on 9th August was achieved on 19th August. The Nifty now should find support at 4770-4780 which is a crucial resistance for the Nifty as it is 38.2% retracement from the lows of Oct2008 (2252) to the highs of (6338) on Nov 2010.Incidentally this is also 50 month moving average for nifty.

The Nifty here looks deep oversold one should wait for a meaning full bounce back before creating any fresh long positions. The Nifty will bounce back to cover the window it created with a Gap down opening on Friday, which will 4940 levels, this could act as an immediate resistance for the Nifty, after this Gap, Nifty will face another resistance at 5323 levels, however the possibility is more that the Nifty could reverse downwards once again from 5000 levels as the market sentiments looks quiet weak.

In Nutshell it would be advisable to take each resistance at a time,  before going long on Nifty....once Nifty crosses 5000 levels one can go Short on Nifty at 5100-5150 levels with a Stop loss of 5323 on a closing basis. 

This Chart is a prime example of Window Support or resistance, here the Nifty has made a gap up opening afrom 5092 levels...and is taking a support at the these levels, you can observe the Gap was filled by the Green candle which opened lower however it closed above the Gap support , if this Gap is breached on an hourly closing basis Nifty can then find support at 5050 levels and then subsequently at 5011 levels which are weak supports..

In short if the 5092 levels are broken in hourly closing basis one can create fresh Shorts as the overall Trend of the Nifty is weak (Refer to the earlier post on 9th August).

As expected the Nifty Hourly chart broke the support of its window 5092 levels and then it went on to test it first support at the expected levels of 5050, now you can also aobserve that Nifty which had a support of 5092 levels is now facing it as a resistance.

Nifty clear downtrend......Sell on every rise

If we can observe,  that Nifty has made a Gap down opening down opening on 5/08/2011 and then again 08/08/2011 , however the same day nifty managed to cover the Gap in Intraday period, on 09/08/2011 Nifty although again opened with Gap down for the third time, but eventually it made a belt hold line and closed making a strong note.......

I expect the market to bounce back on 10/08/2011, however expect the bounce back to be short lived till 11/08/2011 and the Nifty will face a resistance at 5250-5300 levels, which is the gap that Nifty created on 5/08/2011...Important point to note is the Gap will now act as a resistance for Nifty and one should use every rise to 5200 levels to cover their position and new shorts can be built at 5225 levels...

If you look at the Weekly chart of Nifty, after a period of three years, 14 week EMA have convincingly crossed the 34 week EMA and 54 week EMA, it earlier managed to cross the 34 week moving average from above but still it was not a proper signal since it had not crossed the 54 week EMA.

 

You can clearly see the magnitude of downfall in Nifty once these averages were breached..... the Nifty will continue to be in the Negative territory for the next few months now and its first support will be at 4800 levels. any pullback from here should NOT be seen as a BUYING opportunity but opportunity to SELL.